The "cause" of some historical situation is all other historical events. Indeed, there is no causation here but simultaneity. Calling something a cause and something an effect is arbitrary. There is just concatenate things happening.
Causation is logical, not chronological. Causation, in general, is not useful to forecast history. It's useful just to explain abstract features of simultaneous situations. As soon as causation is unavoidably established, future disappears. It is just present.
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